Sankey Diagram for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Forecast

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The probabilistic forecast from the bookmaker consensus model for the 2018 FIFA World Cup is visualized in an interactive Sankey diagram, highlighting the teams' most likely progress through the tournament. Read more ›

Probabilistic Forecasting for the 2018 FIFA World Cup

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Using a consensus model based on quoted bookmakers' odds winning probabilities for all competing teams in the FIFA World Cup are obtained: The favorite is Brazil, closely followed by the defending World Champion Germany. Read more ›

Distributional regression forests on arXiv

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Distributional regression trees and forests provide flexible data-driven probabilistic forecasts by blending distributional models (for location, scale, shape, and beyond) with regression trees and random forests. Accompanied by the R package disttree. Read more ›

BAMLSS paper published in JCGS

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Bayesian additive models for location, scale, and shape (and beyond) provide a general framework for distributional regression. Accompanied by the R package bamlss. Read more ›

GLMM trees published in BRM

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Generalized linear mixed-effects model trees, especially for detecting treatment-subgroup interactions in clustered data. Accompanied by the R package glmertree, combining partykit::glmtree and lme4::glmer. Read more ›

Welcome to the redesigned web page

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Redesigned the personal web page using a responsive jekyll design with a fresh theme and better-structured content. Read more ›